Democrats faced a challenging path to holding their Senate majority even before President Joe Biden stepped aside from the 2024 campaign – and they likely still do with Vice President Kamala Harris as their presumptive nominee.
Nine of the top 10 seats on CNN’s latest ranking of the Senate seats most likely to flip are held by Democrats (or independents who caucus with them). And assuming Republicans flip West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring, the GOP just needs to win the White House or pick up one more Senate seat to win the majority.
1. West Virginia
Sen. Joe Manchin isn’t running for reelection, making this a likely GOP win. He hinted at possibly running as an independent but later said he’s not running for any political office. GOP nominee Gov. Jim Justice, despite some controversy, is popular and won the primary against Rep. Alex Mooney. Manchin admitted it’s tough for Democrats in West Virginia, calling the “D” brand toxic.
2. Montana
Sen. Jon Tester faces a tough reelection in a state Trump won by double digits. Tester’s opponent, Tim Sheehy, is a wealthy businessman and retired Navy SEAL. Democrats are trying to highlight Tester’s local roots versus Sheehy’s outsider status. Tester raised more money in the second quarter but spent a lot, maintaining a cash advantage over Sheehy.
3. Ohio
Sen. Sherrod Brown is running for reelection in a Trump-favored state. Brown’s campaign focuses on local issues, distancing himself from national Democrats. His GOP opponent, Bernie Moreno, got Trump’s backing. Brown raised the most money of any incumbent and is spending heavily to define Moreno, who has faced scrutiny over his personal narrative.
4. Nevada
Sen. Jacky Rosen is seeking a second term against Republican Sam Brown. Despite Nevada leaning blue, Rosen’s race is competitive due to shifting demographics. Rosen focuses on lowering prescription drug costs, while Brown, endorsed by Trump, emphasizes border security and the economy. Rosen has a fundraising edge.
5. Arizona
Kari Lake, who lost the 2022 gubernatorial race, is the leading GOP candidate against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego. Lake’s focus on election denial may hurt her, but strong Trump support could boost her chances. Gallego, with strong fundraising, is positioning himself as a moderate and focusing on his military service.
6. Michigan
Rep. Elissa Slotkin is running to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Slotkin, a strong fundraiser, faces former Rep. Mike Rogers, who has Trump’s endorsement. Both have national security backgrounds, and Slotkin’s comments on a donor call highlighted concerns about top-ticket races affecting her campaign.
7. Pennsylvania
Sen. Bob Casey is up against wealthy Republican Dave McCormick. Democrats portray McCormick as out-of-touch and tied to China, while Republicans criticize Casey’s long tenure. Casey has strong fundraising but faces significant GOP spending. Polls show Casey slightly ahead.
8. Wisconsin
Sen. Tammy Baldwin is running against Republican Eric Hovde, who has made controversial comments providing Democrats with attack material. Baldwin emphasizes her work on health issues, while Hovde’s out-of-state ties are a focal point for criticism. Baldwin leads in early polls, but Hovde’s self-funding could narrow the gap.
9. Maryland
Angela Alsobrooks won the Democratic nomination to succeed Sen. Ben Cardin and faces former Gov. Larry Hogan. Alsobrooks aims to become the first Black senator from Maryland, focusing on her fundraising strength and Hogan’s mixed record on abortion. Hogan’s distancing from Trump is a key part of his campaign strategy.
